The suggested citation for this analytic report is:

*Thorley, J.L. and Dalgarno, S.I.J. (2018) Kaslo Bull Trout Productivity 2017. A Poisson Consulting Analysis Report. URL: http://www.poissonconsulting.ca/f/443864882.*

## Background

The Kaslo River and Keen Creek, which is a tributary of the Kaslo River, are important Bull Trout spawning and rearing tributaries on Kootenay Lake. From 2012 to 2017, field crews have night-snorkeled both systems in the fall and recorded all juvenile Bull Trout between 30 mm and 350 mm in length. Snorkel and electrofishing marking crews have also captured and tagged juvenile Bull Trout for the snorkel crews to resight. Redd counts have been conducted in both systems since 2006.

The primary goal of the current analyses is to answer the following questions:

What is the observer efficiency when night-snorkeling for juvenile Bull Trout in the Kaslo River and Keen Creek?

What are the densities of age-1 Bull Trout in the Kaslo River and Keen Creek?

What is the relationship between the number of redds and the resultant densities of age-1 Bull Trout two years later?

### Data Preparation

The data were cleaned, tidied and databased using R version 3.4.4 (R Core Team 2015).

Table 1. Bull Trout length cutoffs by age-class.

Age Class | Length (mm) |
---|---|

Age-0 | 30 - 90 |

Age-1 | 91 - 150 |

Age-2+ | 151 - 350 |

### Statistical Analysis

Model parameters were estimated using Maximum-Likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods. The Maximum-Likelihood Estimates (MLE) were obtained using TMB (Kristensen et al. 2016) while the Bayesian estimates were produced using JAGS (Plummer 2015). For additional information on ML and Bayesian estimation the reader is referred to Millar (2011) and McElreath (2016), respectively.

Unless indicated otherwise, the Bayesian analyses used uninformative normal prior distributions (Kery and Schaub 2011, 36). The posterior distributions were estimated from 1500 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples thinned from the second halves of 3 chains (Kery and Schaub 2011, 38–40). Model convergence was confirmed by ensuring that \(\hat{R} \leq 1.1\) (Kery and Schaub 2011, 40) and \(\textrm{ESS} \geq 150\) for each of the monitored parameters (Kery and Schaub 2011, 61). Where \(\hat{R}\) is the potential scale reduction factor and \(\textrm{ESS}\) is the effective sample size.

The parameters are summarised in terms of the point *estimate*, standard
deviation (*sd*), the *z-score*, *lower* and *upper* 95%
confidence/credible limits (CLs) and the *p-value* (Kery and Schaub 2011, 37, 42). For ML models, the point estimate is the MLE, the standard
deviation is the standard error, the z-score is
\(\mathrm{sd}/\mathrm{MLE}\) and the 95% CLs are the
\(\mathrm{MLE} \pm 1.96 \cdot \mathrm{sd}\). For Bayesian models, the
estimate is the median (50th percentile) of the MCMC samples, the
z-score is \(\mathrm{mean}/\mathrm{sd}\) and the 95% CLs are the 2.5th and
97.5th percentiles. A p-value of 0.05 indicates that the lower or upper
95% CL is 0.

Model averaging and selection was implemented using an information
theoretic approach (Burnham and Anderson 2002). ML models were compared using
the marginal Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected for small sample
size (AICc, Burnham and Anderson 2002). The support for fixed terms in models
with identical *random* (Kery and Schaub 2011, 75) effects was
assessed using the Akaike’s weights (\(w_i\)) which were also used for
model averaging (Burnham and Anderson 2002).

Where relevant, model adequacy was confirmed by examination of residual plots for the full model(s).

The results are displayed graphically by plotting the modeled
relationships between particular variables and the response(s) with the
remaining variables held constant. In general, continuous and discrete
fixed variables are held constant at their mean and first level values,
respectively, while random variables are held constant at their typical
values (expected values of the underlying hyperdistributions)
(Kery and Schaub 2011, 77–82). When informative the influence of
particular variables is expressed in terms of the *effect size* (i.e.,
percent change in the response variable) with 95% confidence/credible
intervals (CIs, Bradford, Korman, and Higgins 2005).

The analyses were implemented using R version 3.4.4
(R Core Team 2015) and the
`mbr`

family of packages.

### Model Descriptions

#### Observer Efficiency

All resighted fish with a tag were allocated to the closest unallocated marked fish (with the same colour tag) by fork length and distance. The marked fish were analysed using a logistic regression model. Key assumptions of the full Maximum Likelihood logistic regression include:

- The observer efficiency varies by the fork length as a second order polynomial.
- The observer efficiency varies between systems.
- The observer efficiency varies by the gradient, sinuosity and river kilometre.

Preliminary analysis indicated that river kilometre received similar support to watershed area.

The final Bayesian logistic regression assumed that:

- The observer efficiency varies by the fork length.

#### Lineal Density

Both systems were broken into 100 m sites by bank. The lineal density at each site was estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Model. Key assumptions of the full Maximum Likelihood GLMM include:

- The lineal density varies between systems and years.
- The lineal density varies randomly by site.
- The lineal density varies by site sinuosity, gradient and river kilometre.
- The observer efficiency for each system is as estimated by the observer efficiency model.

Preliminary analysis indicated that river kilometre was better supported as a predictor of lineal density than watershed area.

The final Bayesian GLMM dropped sinuosity and gradient and took into account the uncertainty in the observer efficiencies as estimated by the observer efficiency model.

#### Stock-Recruitment

The stock-recruitment relationship was estimated using a Bayesian Beverton-Holt stock-recruitment curve. Key assumptions of the final BH SR model include:

- The strength of density-dependence varies between systems.

### Model Templates

### Observer Efficiency

#### Maximum Likelihood

```
#include <TMB.hpp>
template<class Type>
Type objective_function<Type>::operator() () {
DATA_VECTOR(Observed);
DATA_FACTOR(System);
DATA_VECTOR(Tagged);
DATA_VECTOR(Length);
DATA_VECTOR(Gradient);
DATA_VECTOR(Sinuosity);
DATA_VECTOR(Rkm);
PARAMETER(bIntercept);
PARAMETER(bSystem);
PARAMETER(bLength);
PARAMETER(bLength2);
PARAMETER(bGradient);
PARAMETER(bSinuosity);
PARAMETER(bRkm);
vector<Type> eObserved = Observed;
int n = Observed.size();
Type nll = 0.0;
for(int i = 0; i < n; i++){
eObserved(i) = invlogit(bIntercept + bSystem * System(i) + bLength * Length(i) + bLength2 * pow(Length(i), 2) + bGradient * Gradient(i) + bSinuosity * Sinuosity(i) + bRkm * Rkm(i));
nll -= dbinom(Observed(i), Tagged(i), eObserved(i), true);
return nll;
..
```

Template 1. Full model.

#### Bayesian

```
model{
bIntercept ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
bLength ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
for(i in 1:length(Observed)){
logit(eObserved[i]) <- bIntercept + bLength * Length[i]
Observed[i] ~ dbern(eObserved[i])
}
..
```

Template 2. Final model.

### Lineal Density

#### Maximum Likelihood

```
#include <TMB.hpp>
template<class Type>
Type objective_function<Type>::operator() () {
DATA_VECTOR(Count);
DATA_VECTOR(Length);
DATA_VECTOR(Coverage);
DATA_VECTOR(Efficiency);
DATA_VECTOR(Dispersion);
DATA_VECTOR(Gradient);
DATA_VECTOR(Sinuosity);
DATA_VECTOR(Rkm);
DATA_FACTOR(System);
DATA_FACTOR(Site);
DATA_INTEGER(nSite);
DATA_FACTOR(Year);
PARAMETER_MATRIX(bSystemYear);
PARAMETER_VECTOR(bSite);
PARAMETER(bGradient);
PARAMETER(bSinuosity);
PARAMETER(bRkm);
PARAMETER_VECTOR(bDispersion);
DATA_INTEGER(nDispersion);
PARAMETER(log_sDispersion);
PARAMETER(log_sSite);
Type sSite = exp(log_sSite);
Type sDispersion = exp(log_sDispersion);
ADREPORT(sSite);
ADREPORT(sDispersion);
vector<Type> eDensity = Count;
vector<Type> eCount = Count;
vector<Type> eNorm = pnorm(bDispersion, Type(0), Type(1));
vector<Type> eDispersion = qgamma(eNorm, pow(sDispersion, -2), pow(sDispersion, 2));
Type nll = 0.0;
for(int i = 0; i < nSite; i++){
nll -= dnorm(bSite(i), Type(0), sSite, true);
for(int i = 0; i < nDispersion; i++){
nll -= dnorm(bDispersion(i), Type(0), Type(1), true);
eDensity(i) = exp(bSystemYear(System(i), Year(i)) + bGradient * Gradient(i) + bSinuosity * Sinuosity(i) + bRkm * Rkm(i) + bSite(Site(i)));
eCount(i) = eDensity(i) * Length(i) * Coverage(i);
nll -= dpois(Count(i), eCount(i) * Efficiency(i) * eDispersion(i), true);
return nll;
..
```

Template 3. The full model.

#### Bayesian

```
model{
bEfficiency ~ dnorm(Efficiency[1], EfficiencySD[1]^-2) T(0, )
for(i in 1:nSystem) {
for(j in 1:nYear) {
bSystemYear[i,j] ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
}
}
log_sSite ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
log(sSite) <- log_sSite
for(i in 1:nSite) {
bSite[i] ~ dnorm(0, sSite^-2)
}
bRkm ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
log_sDispersion ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
log(sDispersion) <- log_sDispersion
for(i in 1:length(Count)) {
log(eDensity[i]) <- bSystemYear[System[i],Year[i]] + bRkm * Rkm[i] + bSite[Site[i]]
eDispersion[i] ~ dgamma(sDispersion^-2, sDispersion^-2)
Count[i] ~ dpois(eDensity[i] * Length[i] * Coverage[i] * bEfficiency * eDispersion[i])
}
..
```

Template 4. The final model.

### Stock-Recruiment

```
model {
log_bAlpha ~ dnorm(5, 5^-2)
log(bAlpha) <- log_bAlpha
for(i in 1:nSystem) {
log_bBeta[i] ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
log(bBeta[i]) <- log_bBeta[i]
}
log_sRecruits ~ dnorm(0, 5^-2)
log(sRecruits) <- log_sRecruits
for(i in 1:length(Recruits)){
eRecruits[i] <- bAlpha * Stock[i] / (1 + bBeta[System[i]] * Stock[i])
Recruits[i] ~ dlnorm(log(eRecruits[i]), sRecruits^-2)
}
bCarryingCapacity <- bAlpha / bBeta
..
```

Template 5. Final model.

## Results

### Tables

### Coverage

Table 2. Total length of river bank counted (including replicates) by system and year.

System | Year | Length (km) |
---|---|---|

Kaslo River | 2012 | 10.57 km |

Kaslo River | 2013 | 13.43 km |

Kaslo River | 2014 | 11.45 km |

Kaslo River | 2015 | 7.32 km |

Kaslo River | 2016 | 11.59 km |

Kaslo River | 2017 | 9.79 km |

Keen Creek | 2012 | 1.44 km |

Keen Creek | 2013 | 0.95 km |

Keen Creek | 2014 | 0.67 km |

Keen Creek | 2015 | 0.72 km |

Keen Creek | 2016 | 0.85 km |

Keen Creek | 2017 | 1.68 km |

### Fish

Table 3. Number of fish observed by system, age-class and species. All species are assumed to have the Bull Trout age-class length cutoffs.

System | AgeClass | Year | Bull Trout | Brook Trout | Rainbow Trout |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2012 | 104 | 0 | 1 |

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2013 | 104 | 1 | 41 |

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2014 | 253 | 1 | 49 |

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2015 | 89 | 1 | 33 |

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2016 | 187 | 4 | 138 |

Kaslo River | Age-0 | 2017 | 172 | 9 | 143 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2012 | 151 | 2 | 86 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2013 | 161 | 12 | 63 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2014 | 113 | 10 | 66 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2015 | 166 | 3 | 81 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2016 | 172 | 20 | 277 |

Kaslo River | Age-1 | 2017 | 245 | 25 | 233 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2012 | 173 | 29 | 205 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2013 | 196 | 14 | 174 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2014 | 207 | 21 | 140 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2015 | 69 | 3 | 61 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2016 | 114 | 4 | 188 |

Kaslo River | Age-2+ | 2017 | 169 | 36 | 361 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2012 | 8 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2013 | 4 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2014 | 8 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2015 | 2 | 1 | 4 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-0 | 2017 | 4 | 0 | 5 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2012 | 40 | 0 | 3 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2013 | 20 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2014 | 21 | 0 | 1 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2015 | 43 | 0 | 4 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2016 | 4 | 0 | 0 |

Keen Creek | Age-1 | 2017 | 47 | 3 | 19 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2012 | 88 | 1 | 24 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2013 | 61 | 3 | 10 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2014 | 42 | 0 | 7 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2015 | 40 | 2 | 9 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2016 | 19 | 1 | 10 |

Keen Creek | Age-2+ | 2017 | 53 | 8 | 36 |

### Observer Efficiency

Table 4. Parameter descriptions.

Parameter | Description |
---|---|

`bGradient` |
The effect of `Gradient` on `bIntercept` |

`bIntercept` |
The intercept for `logit(eObserved)` |

`bLength` |
The effect of `Length` on `bIntercept` |

`bLength2` |
The effect of `Length` on the effect of `Length` on `bIntercept` |

`bRkm` |
The effect of `Rkm` on `bIntercept` |

`bSinuosity` |
The effect of `Sinuosity` on `bIntercept` |

`eObserved` |
The expected probability of observing an individual |

`Gradient` |
The standardized site-level gradient |

`Length` |
The standardized fork length |

`Observed` |
The number of individuals observed (`0` or `1` ) |

`Rkm` |
The standardized Rkm |

`Sinuosity` |
The standardized site-level sinuosity |

`Tagged` |
The number of tagged individuals (`1` ) |

#### Maximum Likelihood

Table 5. Model averaged parameter estimates and Akaike weights.

term | estimate | sd | zscore | lower | upper | pvalue | nmodels | proportion | ICWt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

bGradient | 0.1073715 | 0.1639901 | 0.6547440 | -0.2140432 | 0.4287862 | 0.5126326 | 48 | 0.5000000 | 0.49 |

bIntercept | -1.3314248 | 0.2244021 | -5.9332104 | -1.7712448 | -0.8916048 | 0.0000000 | 48 | 1.0000000 | 1.00 |

bLength | 0.7757319 | 0.2170603 | 3.5738087 | 0.3503016 | 1.2011623 | 0.0003518 | 48 | 0.6666667 | 1.00 |

bLength2 | -0.0195316 | 0.1099985 | -0.1775623 | -0.2351247 | 0.1960615 | 0.8590667 | 48 | 0.3333333 | 0.28 |

bRkm | -0.0296348 | 0.1285408 | -0.2305475 | -0.2815702 | 0.2223006 | 0.8176663 | 48 | 0.5000000 | 0.31 |

bSinuosity | -0.0190170 | 0.1021890 | -0.1860967 | -0.2193037 | 0.1812697 | 0.8523689 | 48 | 0.5000000 | 0.29 |

bSystem | 0.0602404 | 0.2896767 | 0.2079574 | -0.5075155 | 0.6279963 | 0.8352622 | 48 | 0.5000000 | 0.30 |

#### Bayesian

Table 6. Final parameter estimates.

term | estimate | sd | zscore | lower | upper | pvalue |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

bIntercept | -1.3040615 | 0.1946852 | -6.746730 | -1.7185581 | -0.9392931 | 7e-04 |

bLength | 0.8002934 | 0.2041332 | 3.933018 | 0.4097444 | 1.2043828 | 7e-04 |

Table 7. Observer Efficiency estimates for a 123 mm Bull Trout.

System | Efficiency | EfficiencySD | EfficiencyLower | EfficiencyUpper |
---|---|---|---|---|

Kaslo River | 0.1644315 | 0.0322458 | 0.1060672 | 0.2318914 |

Table 8. Final model summary.

n | K | nchains | niters | nthin | ess | rhat | converged |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

190 | 2 | 3 | 500 | 1 | 540 | 1 | TRUE |

### Lineal Density

Table 9. Parameter descriptions.

Parameter | Description |
---|---|

`bDispersion` |
The random effect of overdispersion |

`bGradient` |
The effect of `Gradient` on `bSystemYear` |

`bRkm` |
The effect of `Rkm` on `bSystemYear` |

`bSinuosity` |
The effect of `Sinuosity` on `bSystemYear` |

`bSite` |
The random effect of `Site` on `bSystemYear` |

`bSystemYear` |
The effect of `System` and `Year` on `log(eDensity)` |

`Count` |
Number of fish counted |

`Coverage` |
Proportion of site surveyed |

`Dispersion` |
Factor for random effect of overdispersion |

`eCount` |
The expected `Count` |

`eDensity` |
The expected lineal density |

`Efficiency` |
The observer efficiency from the observer efficiency model |

`Gradient` |
Standardized gradient |

`Length` |
Length of site (m) |

`log_sDispersion` |
`log(sDispersion)` |

`log_sSite` |
`log(sSite)` |

`Rkm` |
Standardized Rkm |

`sDispersion` |
The SD of `bDispersion` |

`Sinuosity` |
Standardized sinuosity |

`Site` |
The site |

`sSite` |
The SD of `bSite` |

`System` |
The system |

`Year` |
The year |

#### Maximum Likelihood

Table 10. Model averaged parameter estimates and Akaike weights.

term | estimate | sd | zscore | lower | upper | pvalue | nmodels | proportion | ICWt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

bGradient | 0.0219370 | 0.0424145 | 0.5172052 | -0.0611939 | 0.1050678 | 0.6050129 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.39 |

bRkm | 0.3753258 | 0.0581847 | 6.4505957 | 0.2612859 | 0.4893656 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 0.5 | 1.00 |

bSinuosity | 0.0113107 | 0.0318410 | 0.3552244 | -0.0510965 | 0.0737179 | 0.7224215 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.32 |

bSystemYear\[1,1\] | -2.7708561 | 0.1217848 | -22.7520757 | -3.0095499 | -2.5321624 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,1\] | -1.4433005 | 0.2625496 | -5.4972499 | -1.9578882 | -0.9287129 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[1,2\] | -2.8854328 | 0.1104037 | -26.1352859 | -3.1018201 | -2.6690455 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,2\] | -1.5938008 | 0.3439549 | -4.6337491 | -2.2679401 | -0.9196616 | 0.0000036 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[1,3\] | -3.1408441 | 0.1260153 | -24.9243169 | -3.3878294 | -2.8938587 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,3\] | -1.2106845 | 0.3641526 | -3.3246626 | -1.9244105 | -0.4969586 | 0.0008853 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[1,4\] | -2.2830433 | 0.1292692 | -17.6611514 | -2.5364063 | -2.0296803 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,4\] | -0.4973132 | 0.3259981 | -1.5255094 | -1.1362577 | 0.1416314 | 0.1271321 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[1,5\] | -2.6779658 | 0.1144346 | -23.4017121 | -2.9022536 | -2.4536781 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,5\] | -3.1198760 | 0.5727878 | -5.4468272 | -4.2425195 | -1.9972326 | 0.0000001 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[1,6\] | -2.1695035 | 0.1041407 | -20.8324317 | -2.3736155 | -1.9653916 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

bSystemYear\[2,6\] | -1.4367724 | 0.2572289 | -5.5855792 | -1.9409318 | -0.9326130 | 0.0000000 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

log_sDispersion | -0.5637376 | 0.1072507 | -5.2562592 | -0.7739451 | -0.3535300 | 0.0000001 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

log_sSite | -0.8380570 | 0.1586402 | -5.2827533 | -1.1489860 | -0.5271279 | 0.0000001 | 8 | 1.0 | 1.00 |

#### Bayesian

Table 11. Parameter estimates.

term | estimate | sd | zscore | lower | upper | pvalue |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

bEfficiency | 0.1583234 | 0.0320791 | 4.9908766 | 0.1023206 | 0.2247109 | 0.0007 |

bRkm | 0.3787761 | 0.0579048 | 6.5537086 | 0.2642380 | 0.4962428 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[1,1\] | -2.6910260 | 0.2361624 | -11.3961262 | -3.1263956 | -2.2159095 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,1\] | -1.3574257 | 0.3420859 | -3.9344371 | -1.9901016 | -0.6522819 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[1,2\] | -2.8065407 | 0.2320346 | -12.1051927 | -3.2538568 | -2.3341389 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,2\] | -1.4690385 | 0.4024343 | -3.6494544 | -2.2516102 | -0.7195669 | 0.0027 |

bSystemYear\[1,3\] | -3.0661694 | 0.2391919 | -12.8086954 | -3.5342248 | -2.5983214 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,3\] | -1.0931471 | 0.4182975 | -2.5855224 | -1.9154105 | -0.2378714 | 0.0107 |

bSystemYear\[1,4\] | -2.2086802 | 0.2362729 | -9.3479884 | -2.6667646 | -1.7470974 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,4\] | -0.3694095 | 0.3797515 | -0.9805993 | -1.1532209 | 0.3684330 | 0.3200 |

bSystemYear\[1,5\] | -2.6082042 | 0.2307494 | -11.2686788 | -3.0291092 | -2.1198527 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,5\] | -3.0325974 | 0.5996325 | -5.0925603 | -4.3506536 | -1.9780550 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[1,6\] | -2.0985962 | 0.2337713 | -8.9589431 | -2.5122642 | -1.6089384 | 0.0007 |

bSystemYear\[2,6\] | -1.3305624 | 0.3253582 | -4.0528784 | -1.9297537 | -0.6908107 | 0.0007 |

log_sDispersion | -0.4928908 | 0.1056907 | -4.7088345 | -0.7210984 | -0.3098148 | 0.0007 |

log_sSite | -0.8466801 | 0.1656018 | -5.1588087 | -1.2155074 | -0.5537102 | 0.0007 |

Table 12. Model summary.

n | K | nchains | niters | nthin | ess | rhat | converged |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

758 | 16 | 3 | 500 | 20 | 225 | 1.02 | TRUE |

### Stock-Recruiment

Table 13. Parameter descriptions.

Parameter | Description |
---|---|

`bBeta` |
Density-dependence |

`eRecruits` |
Expected value of `Recruits` |

`Recruits` |
Number of age-1 Bull Trout |

`Stock` |
Number of Bull Trout redds |

`bAlpha` |
Recruits per stock at low stock density |

`sRecruits` |
SD of residual variation in `Recruits` |

#### Bayesian

Table 14. Final parameter estimates.

term | estimate | sd | zscore | lower | upper | pvalue |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

bAlpha | 60.6428203 | 2.015650e+04 | 0.1301767 | 24.6287527 | 1.510198e+04 | 0.0007 |

bBeta\[1\] | 0.2577378 | 1.171675e+02 | 0.1269806 | 0.0154937 | 8.720062e+01 | 0.0007 |

bBeta\[2\] | 0.0653216 | 7.132601e+01 | 0.1221502 | 0.0000299 | 5.018846e+01 | 0.0007 |

bCarryingCapacity\[1\] | 238.8018290 | 7.010678e+04 | 0.0493589 | 111.2201443 | 1.605357e+03 | 0.0007 |

bCarryingCapacity\[2\] | 905.2124317 | 5.486044e+08 | 0.0330460 | 234.0531743 | 1.327449e+06 | 0.0007 |

log_bAlpha | 4.1050012 | 1.615337e+00 | 2.8894584 | 3.2039118 | 9.622578e+00 | 0.0007 |

log_bBeta\[1\] | -1.3558127 | 2.024859e+00 | -0.4648962 | -4.1673276 | 4.468051e+00 | 0.4173 |

log_bBeta\[2\] | -2.7284332 | 3.422965e+00 | -0.8745201 | -10.4179713 | 3.915781e+00 | 0.2880 |

log_sRecruits | -0.4741538 | 2.450922e-01 | -1.8411415 | -0.8729008 | 1.173366e-01 | 0.1000 |

sRecruits | 0.6224115 | 1.772484e-01 | 3.7079487 | 0.4177382 | 1.124500e+00 | 0.0007 |

Table 15. Final model summary.

n | K | nchains | niters | nthin | ess | rhat | converged |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

12 | 10 | 3 | 500 | 100 | 394 | 1.012 | TRUE |

### Figures

### Systems

### Sites

### Coverage

### Fish

### Observer Efficiency

#### Bayesian

### Lineal Density

#### Bayesian

### Stock-Recruiment

#### Bayesian

## Conclusions

- Observer efficiency is very low for age-0 Bull Trout and increases with size.
- Sinuosity and gradient are not important predictors of the densities of age-1 Bull Trout in Keen Creek and the Kaslo River.
- River kilometre is a better predictor of density than watershed area.

### Recommendations

- Analytic
- Quantify observer differences in length estimation and efficiency.
- Model autocorrelation in site densities.

## Acknowledgements

The organisations and individuals whose contributions have made this analysis report possible include:

- BC Fish and Wildlife
- Greg Andrusak

- Stephan Himmer
- Gillian Sanders
- Jeff Berdusco
- Vicky Lipinski
- Jimmy Robbins
- Jason Bowers
- Kyle Mace

## References

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